Donald Trump shocked a lot of people when he performed much better than expected in blue-leaning New Jersey during the 2024 presidential race.
Here’s another thing that may surprise you: Trump not only has a positive rating among Jersey voters but better numbers than the state’s Democratic governor, Phil Murphy, in a new poll released just days after the Republican returned to the White House.
Thought Garden State voters are statistically split on Trump, a slightly larger percentage (48%) view him favorably than see him negatively (46%), according to the Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill survey released Thursday.
Murphy, meanwhile, also gets split grades in the poll, but just below Trump’s. He’s viewed favorably by 44% of the state’s voters, while 42% see the two term governor unfavorably as he enters his final year in office.
This marks the first time a poll has shown Trump with a positive favorability margin in New Jersey.
The figures are in line with the results of the November election. Democrat Kamala Harris carried New Jersey, taking 52% of the vote versus Trump’s 46%. But the six-point margin marked the best showing by a Republican presidential candidate since 1992. That’s after Trump, a former Atlantic City casino magnate, lost his previous two races in New Jersey by double digits.
It has led some to wonder whether Jersey is now a swing state — or at least turning purple.
Thursday’s poll was taken both before and after Trump was sworn in Monday and signed a series of executive orders, including on immigration, and issued sweeping pardons of Jan. 6 participants.
Broken down more closely, the survey shows 32% of Jersey voters have a very favorable view of Trump, while 16% view him somewhat favorably, 6% somewhat unfavorably, 39% very unfavorably, and 6% are unsure or have no opinion.
For Murphy, 17% have a very favorable view of him, 27% somewhat favorable, 16% somewhat unfavorable, and 26% very unfavorable, while 12% are neutral and 2% have not heard of him.
“Governor Murphy is eight points more popular among women than men, 48% to 40%. The governor has a 75% favorable rating among Democratic voters, dropping to 27% of independents and 14% of Republicans,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Murphy won re-election by a mere 3 percentage points in 2021 but was also the first Democratic New Jersey governor since the late 1970s to secure a second term. His approval ratings have been in relatively positive territory since then.
How about now-former President Joe Biden? The Democrat leaves office with favorable numbers among 40% of Jersey voters and unfavorable reviews from 54%, while 7% are neutral.
Murphy has forged a sometimes tense, sometimes friendly and often pragmatic relationship with Trump over the years. On Trump’s first day in office Monday, Murphy asked for his help to stop congestion pricing in New York City but also sharply criticized him for pardoning those who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Thursday’s poll was conducted via phone from Jan. 18-21 among 1,000 registered New Jersey voters, including 437 Democrats and 334 Republicans. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points.
Stories by Brent Johnson
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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X at @johnsb01.