Knicks vs. Grizzlies predictions, picks and best bets for NBA Friday: Backing Brunson?

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, left, defends against New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in New York. The Grizzlies won 127-123.

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant, left, defends against New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson during the second half of an NBA basketball game, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in New York. The Grizzlies won 127-123. (AP Photo/John Munson)(AP Photo/John Munson)

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The New York Knicks will attempt to win for the fifth time in seven games when they visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday night. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from FedEx Forum. New York has won the last three matchups between the teams.

A victory for the 38-20 Knicks would be a collective confidence booster. Memphis has the same record as New York, which is fourth-best in the NBA. The Knicks are a combined 0-7 against the teams with the three best records in the league, and another decisive loss to one of the NBA’s better opponents would be quite deflating.

New York proved to be no match for Cleveland and Boston last weekend before holding on for a win over the disappointing 76ers at home on Wednesday.

Knicks vs. Grizzlies predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

The Knicks have not been able to effectively compete with the best teams in the league on a regular basis, but they did deliver a 143-106 knockout against Memphis in late January, Mikal Bridges, coming off a strong outing against the 76ers this week, led New York with 28 points in that matchup.

In recent games, though, Tom Thibodeau’s crew has looked very shaky overall, absorbing one-sided losses to the Cavaliers and Celtics before nearly blowing a 19-point lead in the win over the Sixers. Memphis may have not forgotten the blowout loss in the first meeting and was more competitive in a six-point loss at Cleveland earlier this week before bouncing back to beat Phoenix.

New York is also trying to work through some key injuries, most notably Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart, who are both dealing with knee issues and are listed as questionable. It is possible that Mitchell Robinson, who missed the first 58 games of the season with an ankle problem, will make his season debut tonight.

Memphis is 14-4-1 ATS in non-conference games, per TeamRankings.com. The Grizzlies are 32-14-1 after a win and they are 20-10-1 as a home favorite. New York is 13-14 ATS as a road team. The Knicks are 16-20-1 ATS after a win and they are 2-6 as an Underdog.

These teams feature two of the best offenses in the NBA, so the Over is a good play even though the total does seem to be hefty overall. New York ranks third in the NBA in Offensive Rating at 118.9. Memphis is tied for fifth at 117.8. The Knicks are also 21st in Defensive Rating at 114.2. They are 7-3 to the Over in the last 10 games. Memphis is 5-2 to the Over in its last seven.

Brunson is averaging 27.1 points per game in February and should be a prime force again in a matchup of seemingly equal opponents, who are both just a notch below the very best in the league. He is averaging 27.0 points per game on the road. If Towns is out or limited, he will have to carry an ever bigger offensive load.

Knicks vs. Grizzlies moneyline odds analysis

Why Memphis could win as the favorite

Best odds: -170 at Caesars Sportsbook

The Grizzlies have won 22 of 28 home games this season. In the win over Phoenix, they scored 152 points in overtime, soaring past 150 points for the second time this season.

The 37-point loss to the Knicks was Memphis’ worst of the season and might have lingered in the collective minds of the team, with an eventual eye on this rematch. The Grizzlies boast the best offense in the NBA at 123.3 points per game, and defense has been a consistent concern for the Knicks, both in the paint and when defending three-pointers,

Ja Morant scored 29 against Phoenix and is averaging 22.1 points per game in February. He scored the final 11 points for Memphis to send the game against the Suns into overtime. Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging career highs in points per game (22.9). He is averaging 23.3 per game in February and 27.7 in wins. Jackson is also tied for eighth in the league in blocked shots at 1.7 per game.

Why New York could win as the underdog

Best odds: +150 at bet365 Sportsbook

The Knicks can win if Brunson stays hot. He is coming off a 34-point, seven-assist performance in the win over Philadelphia. He scored 14 points in the fourth quarter of that game. It was his 19th game this season with 30-plus points and five-plus assists. He is tied for third in the NBA for the most such games.

New York will lean on an offense that ranks third in the NBA in True Shooting Percentage (59.8) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (56.4). The Knicks rank third in Points Off Turnovers (15.2) and are fourth in Points In The Paint (53.6).

In the first matchup with the Grizzlies this season, New York recorded 20 steals. It was the most in a game since 1987. OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa combined for 10 steals. In that win, the Knicks rolled up a season-high 52 bench points.


      

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