Republican Jack Ciattarelli came within 3 percentage points of defeating incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy three years ago.
But as the former state lawmaker prepares for another run for New Jersey governor next year, Ciattarelli will have to reintroduce himself because two-thirds of the state’s registered voters either don’t know him or have no opinion of him, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Tuesday morning.
Democrats also seeking the state’s highest elective office face the same dilemma. U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, D-11th-Dist,, won re-election last week by 14 points. But if she runs for governor, as she is expected to do, 73% of the registered voters polls said they had no opinion or didn’t know who she was.
And Ciattarelli and Sherrill scored the highest favorability ratings, with 20% and 19%, respectively.
The findings demonstrate how wide open the June primary elections are as Murphy, a Democrat, is winding down his final year in office. He was first elected governor in 2017 and is limited to two terms.
“Given that next year’s gubernatorial has no incumbent and no clear front-runners yet, large majorities of voters do not know or have opinions on any of the declared or potential candidates,” said Ashley Koning, an assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.
“On either side of the aisle, no candidate is viewed favorably by more than one in five voters, and at least half of voters do not take sides on any of the candidates we asked,” Koning said.
Tuesday’s poll presented the names of six Democrats and three Republicans who intend to run or are expected to run for governor. Participants were asked whether they had a “favorable” or “unfavorable” opinion, no opinion or “did not know them.”
Here are the Democrats who have confirmed their intention to or are expected to run in the June primary, and their level of name recognition when the poll was conducted in October.
- Newark Mayor Ras Baraka: 16% percent view him favorably, 11% unfavorably, 21% have no opinion; 51% don’t know who he is.
- Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop: 9% view him favorably, 9% unfavorably, 22% have no opinion and 60% don’t know who he is.
- U.S. Rep Josh Gottheimer of Bergen County: 15% favorable, 8% unfavorable, 21% have no opinion; 56% don’t know who he is.
- Former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney of Gloucester County: 12% view him favorably, 19% unfavorably, 25% have no opinion and 44% don’t know who he is.
- Rep. Mikie Sherrill of Essex County: 19% view her favorably, 8% unfavorably, 20% have no opinion and 53% don’t know who she is.
- Sean Spiller, president of the New Jersey Education Association and the former mayor of Montclair: 7% view him favorably, 7% unfavorably, 21% have no opinion, and 65% don’t know who he is.
Republican candidates for governor at this time are:
- State Sen. Jon Bramnick of Union County: 7% view him favorably, 5% unfavorably, 20% have no opinion; 68% don’t know who he is.
- Former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli of Somerset County: receives the best ratings of anyone in the poll with 20% of voters viewing him favorably, 16% unfavorably, 23% have no opinion and 41% don’t know him.
- Conservative radio host from 101.5 FM Bill Spadea: 9% view him favorably, 12% unfavorably, 18% have no opinion and 60% don’t know who he is.
Two Republicans who have announced their intention to run were not included in the poll: real estate broker Robert Canfield and former one-term state Sen. Ed Durr of Gloucester County.
“The field vying to succeed Gov. Murphy is already large and likely to grow even more,” said Kristoffer Shields, director of the Center for the American Governor at Rutgers University-New Brunswick. “Name recognition will therefore be crucially important.”
The poll also asked registered voters how they viewed the current governor and whether they thought the state was going in the right or wrong direction. Murphy’s approval ratings remain steady and in positive territory, with 55% approve of his performance and 36% disapprove. A year ago, Murphy had a 56% approval rating and a 46% disapproval rating.
New Jersey voters are split on their outlook of the state: 45% say it is “currently going in the right direction,” while 46% say it has “gone off on the wrong track” and 9% are unsure.
“Voters are a bit more mixed about the direction of the state than they were a little less than a year ago,” said Jessica Roman, director of data management and analysis at the Eagleton Center.
“Last December, voters were more negative than positive — 48% ‘wrong track’ to 43% ‘right direction’ — about New Jersey. Even though this margin has narrowed, however, there really hasn’t been a significant shift in either direction on outlook since September 2022,” Roman said.
Not surprisingly, 72% of people who identified as Democrats — the dominant party in the state — say New Jersey is headed in the right direction, while 53% of independents and 80% of Republicans say it’s on the wrong track.
The poll was conducted via phone from Oct. 15-22 among 929 registered voters. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 4.2 percentage points.
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Susan K. Livio may be reached at slivio@njadvancemedia.com. Follow her on X @SusanKLivio.