TAMPA, Fla. — Every once in a while you run into a news cycle that radically changes a team’s trajectory.
Ok, let’s try simpler English: the Yankees just got smoked.
That’s the only way to interpret the events of the last week. Giancarlo Stanton, DJ LeMahieu and now Luis Gil are all out of the picture, which is not good news.
That doesn’t mean a full crash and burn is coming – the roster is still loaded with talent – but manager Aaron Boone is now compromised in multiple areas.
Number 1 on this list is third base. Whatever piece the Yankees were hoping to acquire has become a pipe-dream. That means we can forget Nolan Arenado.
The bait would’ve been Marcus Stroman, except the Yankees are stuck with him after Gil’s devastating lat injury.
That brings us to No. 2, the rotation, which is now set in stone. The Yankees planned to go from six starters to five, but not by injury.
General manager Brian Cashan would’ve likely ramped up his efforts to trade Stroman by the end of March – ideally off-loading most if not all of the right-hander’s $18 million salary for 2025.
No. 3 is the full-time DH spot, currently vacant. It’s been nine days since Stanton left camp, with still no explanation.
Boone wouldn’t (or couldn’t) even say when the slugger is due back in camp, let alone what compelled Stanton to bolt. The mystery continues.
It was an unsettling day overall for the franchise, which learned a hard lesson about spring training plans.
They usually end up breaking your heart into little pieces.
Remember 2024: Gerrit Cole experienced elbow discomfort out of nowhere and didn’t come off the Injured List until June.
Remember 2024, Part 2: Aaron Judge popped an abdominal muscle in February and had to slow-walk the rest of camp. Behind schedule by Opening Day, he ended up hitting .200 in April.
So history is repeating itself in 2025. But what if one of the Yankees’ body blows could’ve been avoided?
While teammates said all the right things about Gil’s tough luck, the truth is he could’ve been elsewhere this spring – and someone else’s problem.
Cashman passed on the chance to trade Gil to the Astros for outfielder Kyle Tucker in December. The GM valued the next five years of contract control over Gil, not to mention building around the American League’s Rookie of the Year.
But in doing so, Cashman gambled on Gil overcoming the effects of a significant innings jump in 2024 – from four innings in 2022-23 to 151.2 last year.
Conventional wisdom says that sudden burst doesn’t come without a price. One way or another, the body always pays. It’s possible Gil’s lower back strain in August was a tip-off that something was wrong with the kinetic chain.
Scouts I trust said they were suspicious of Gil’s delivery the get-go.
“A slinger with an arm that’s too quick” is how one talent evaluator put. It was a warning more than a compliment.
Throw in the fact that Gil had already undergone Tommy John surgery in 2021, and you could’ve almost predicted a major injury was just around the corner.
The Yankees will tell you otherwise, that Gil’s innings were carefully managed, and that nothing was wrong with his arm last year.
But Gil wasn’t the same pitcher in the second half. His numbers all pointed to distress on the horizon, including a 50-point jump in opponents’ batting average, a 3.17 to 4.20 increase in ERA and a gigantic leap in WHIP (1.085 to 1.419).
Theoretically, Gil’s injury appeared out of nowhere, but my hunch is the Yankees weren’t entirely shocked. Gil was headed for trouble. The only question was when.
The impact will be felt this year and perhaps next. The Yankees don’t have enough depth to move Stroman, but it’s the conditional player option for 2026 that’ll handcuff Cashman the most.
All Stroman needs is 140 innings this season for his contract to roll over to 2026 – and for another $18 million to boot. The only way the Yankees can wriggle of that trap is to a) hope Gil returns by June 1. Or b) Stroman gets hurt later in the summer.
To this, I say no chance and bingo.
For now, the Yankees are left with longshot odds. Lat strains never heal quickly, which is why you should take the over on Gil’s projected timeline.
Clarke Schmidt, for example, was supposed to be back in four weeks after tweaking his lat in 2023.
He ended up missing two months.
Gil’s injury is more serious than Schmidt’s. The meter dropped at six weeks, so you do the math.
Boone insisted, “everyone’s different” when it comes to soft tissue, but the Yankees are bracing for the worst. They have to.
After all, their recent history is littered with pulls and strains and fractures. The Bombers have been one of MLB’s most injured teams since 2021, which helps explains their endless championship drought.
But Boone’s crew caught a break in 2024. Twenty three players were hurt, compared to 28 in 2022-23, and 35 in 2021.
Last year’s drop helped send the Yankees to the World Series for the time in 15 years. They were hoping to get lucky for a second year in a row, but March, only four days old, already feels like a punch in the face.
Gil looks miserable. The Yankees feel spooked. The bad omens are everywhere.
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Bob Klapisch may be reached at bklapisch@njadvancemedia.com.