Here’s who Democrats like the most in the big N.J. governor’s race

Three months before the big primary election, a new poll finds Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is the most-known and most-liked candidate among Democratic voters in the six-person fight for the party’s nomination to become New Jersey’s next governor.

But the survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University, released Wednesday morning, otherwise shows a relatively tight, clustered primary as Democrats try to hold on to the governor’s office after eight years of term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill aren’t that far behind Baraka and the three other candidates aren’t that far behind them.

The poll doesn’t include head-to-head matchups in the battle to succeed Murphy and instead measures whether registered Democrats know the contenders and view them favorably.

Baraka leads in name recognition, with 78% of Democrats saying they’ve heard of him. He’s followed by former Senate President Steve Sweeney at 73%, Fulop at 62%, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer 61%, and Sherrill and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller at 56% apiece.

Baraka is also in front with 43% of Democrats saying they have a positive opinion of him, followed by Fulop at 32% and Sherrill at 31%. After that is Gottheimer at 27%, Sweeney at 23%, and Spiller at 22%.

But the poll also found 12% of Democrats have a negative view of Baraka, compared to 24% for Sweeney, 13% for Spiller, 10% for Gottheimer, 7% for Fulop, and 6% for Sherrill.

Ranked by net favorability — the difference between favorable views and unfavorable views — Baraka is at +31, Fulop +26, Sherrill +25, Gottheimer +17, Spiller +8, and Sweeney -1.

“This is not the race anyone was expecting a few months ago,” said Dan Cassino, the poll’s executive director and a professor of government and politics at FDU. “We had been expecting Gottheimer to do much better, and the strong showings of Fulop and Baraka in the progressive wing of the Party has left other candidates scrambling.”

Top Democratic Party leaders have been coalescing around Sherrill, with the congresswoman winning endorsements at several county party conventions, though Sweeney just took Atlantic and Burlington. Baraka has finished second in all counties so far, while Fulop is skipping every convention as he runs a campaign openly challenging the party establishment.

Wednesday’s poll found there are distinct lanes forming. The survey shows 38% of Democrats described themselves as moderates, 46% as liberals, 32% as progressives, and 11% as socialists. (Voters could pick more than one label for themselves.)

Baraka leads with 45% favorability among progressives, compared to 41% each for Sherrill and Fulop. Sherrill leads among liberals at 44%, compared to 38% for Baraka and 34% for Fulop. She’s also tops with moderates at 44%, compared to 41% for Baraka and and 36% for Fulop.

“Baraka is currently edging out the competition among voters on the left of the Democratic Party,” Cassino said. “If the primary electorate skews left, that’s a big advantage; if the electorate looks more like the Democratic Party as a whole, it looks better for Sherrill.”

Cassino added that “lower name recognition means that Fulop and Sherrill have more room to grow their support than Baraka does.”

“More Democrats have made up their minds about Baraka, and double-digit unfavorable numbers among your own party are a bad sign for anyone,” he said.

Additionally, the survey shows Spiller’s connection to the NJEA may be hurting him. He has higher name recognition for that role compared to his former job as Montclair’s mayor (63% versus 52%), but also higher unfavorable marks (16% versus 10%).

“One of Spiller’s biggest advantages in this race – his connection to the NJEA – also looks like something of a liability among voters,” Cassino said.

The poll also found voters' preference on candidates varies by age, race, ethnicity, and sex. Sherrill is the most-liked among white Democrats (48%), Baraka among Black (63%) and Hispanic Democrats (40%).

“We don’t know what the voters who actually turn out in this primary are going to look like,” Cassino said. “If it’s more Black and Hispanic, Baraka has a clear advantage; if it skews more white, Sherrill is in a very good position.”

Meanwhile, Sherrill leads among Democrats 65 and older (46%), but that falls to 29% among voters 30 and under. But Fulop is the lone candidate to draw stable views across age groups (around 32%).

“We generally don’t see a lot of young voters in primaries,” Cassino said. “But Fulop seems to be doing a better job of activating young Democrats than anyone else in the race.”

The pollsters also note there is still a lot of time before the primary, and some contenders — notably Gottheimer — are just beginning rolling out media campaigns.

This survey comes after a head-to-head January poll from Emerson College that found Sherrill leading the Democratic field with 10% of the vote, followed closely by Baraka and Spiller at 8%, Gottheimer and Sweeney at 7%, and Fulop at 4%.

On the Republican side, the leading candidates are state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, former state Sen. Ed Durr, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, and former radio host Bill Spadea. FDU will release a poll on that race Thursday.

The winner of the June 10 Democratic and Republican primary races will square off in November’s general election.

Wednesday’s poll was conducted via phone from Feb. 23-28 with 572 registered Democrats in the state. The margin of error was plus-or-minus 4.5 percentage points.

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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X at @johnsb01.