With more than 10 contenders running to become New Jersey’s next governor, a new poll shows former lawmaker Jack Ciattarelli as the early front-runner on the Republican side and U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill carrying a slim lead in a very close Democratic battle less than six months to the big primary election.
But take note: Many voters from both parties still haven’t decided on a candidate in the race to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, according to the Emerson College/PIX 11/The Hill survey released Thursday.
It’s the first poll of 2025 showing how the field stacks up head to head in the wide-open election.
Ciattarelli, a former member of the state Assembly who came close to unseating Murphy four years ago, has a 13-point lead in the contest for the Republican nomination, with 26% supporting him. He’s followed by radio host Bill Spadea at 13%.
State Sen. Jon Bramnick is at 4% and former state Sen. Ed Durr is at 2%, with both polling near several smaller-name candidates: Roger Bacon (3%), Hans Herberg (3%), Robert Canfield (2%), and James Fazzone (2%)
The fight for the Democratic nod is even tighter, with Sherrill in front at 10%. But several candidates are right behind her: New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka are both at 8%, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney are at 7% each, and Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop is at 4%.
The poll, however, found 47% of Republicans and 56% of Democrats are undecided so far.
“With less than six months until New Jersey’s gubernatorial primaries, 2021 Republican gubernatorial candidate Ciattarelli emerges as the early favorite in the primary, with presumably higher name recognition,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “On the Democratic side, the field is more divided, with Sherrill, Spiller, Baraka, Gottheimer, and Sweeney emerging as early contenders, though the 55% share of undecided voters leaves room for any candidate in the race to consolidate support.”
Thursday's poll results for the 2025 Republican primary for New Jersey governor.Emerson College Polling
Thursday's poll results for the 2025 Democratic primary for New Jersey governor.Emerson College Polling
The results dovetail with a Rutgers-Eagleton poll from November that found many candidates don’t have much name recognition.
The winners of the June 10 Republican and Democratic primaries will square off in the Nov. 4 general election.
Thursday’s poll also showed:
- 63% of Jersey voters feel their family’s income is falling behind the cost of living, while 23% feel their income is even with it, and 15% feel their income is going up faster than it. Women are about 9 points more likely to report their income falling behind.
- Voters are split on if the state is headed in the right or wrong direction, with each view getting 50%. But it varies by party, with 70% of Democrats believing the state is on the right track, compared to 64% of Republicans and 68% of independents who feel it’s on the wrong track.
- The top issues for voters here is the economy (44%), housing affordability (21%), immigration (8%), healthcare (7%), education (6%), crime (5%), and threats to democracy (5%).
The poll was conducted via phone from Jan. 18-21 among 1,000 registered New Jersey voters, including 437 Democratic voters and 334 Republican voters. The overall margin of error was plus-or-minus 3 percentage points, while the margin of error was 4.6 points for Democratic voters and 5.3 points for Republican voters.
Stories by Brent Johnson
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Brent Johnson may be reached at bjohnson@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on X at @johnsb01.